The Univocal, Non-plural West Denies Itself

From Marlene Svazek to Viktor Orban, from Geert Wilders to Andre Ventura, a significant number of NATO opponents gathered in Pontida, Italy, on October 6. According to some, it was a picnic of anti-system extremists who deserve to be treated like contagious plague carriers. Even when these politicians become leaders of the parties that received the most popular votes after the elections, they are still removed from power, as happened with Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (Rassemblement Nationale, RN) in France, or the Austrian Freedom Party (Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs, FPÖ).

Generally speaking, to be precise, the opposition has ruled some countries more than once. For example, Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil and Donald Trump in the United States. The FPÖ in Austria governed until 2019 and was only ousted from power after the Ibiza mystery scandal. In Hungary, Viktor Orban leads the government, and Matteo Salvini is a minister in the Italian government. In France, Prime Minister Michel Barnier is able to work thanks to the tacit support of Marine Le Pen. Right now, no one knows how the November US election will end, but Trump is definitely not in isolation. Next to him, at the scene of the assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania, was Elon Musk, as well as many important bigwigs who (especially in the Pentagon) did not appreciate the hasty flight of the US military contingent from Afghanistan. Whatever the outcome of November’s election, vice presidential candidate Vance has his sights set on a great political future: with his Indiana wife and billionaire friends, he will represent a different America, a post-Trump America that cannot be attacked with the ad hominem exception (designed to appeal to feelings and warnings rather than reason, being a personal initiative rather than a substantive objection – translator’s note) that is now the trump card of anti-Trumpism.

So far, thanks to the double demonization of Trump and Putin, the anti-NATO opposition has been imposed only with hopeless options, such as genetic mutation in Italy or the fairy tale of a possible metamorphosis of the Deep State, as happened in Holland with the arrival of former secret service chief Dick Schoof as prime minister (he took office after proving Geert Wilders right and Mark Rutte wrong).

Demonization will not be able to use forever labels like sovereigntists, populists, nationalists, fascists, Nazis, extreme right, far right. It is impossible to forever stigmatize movements in which today there is little reminder of the past. In fact, they have both pacifism and acceptance of democracy in them; many hold libertarian positions, such as criticizing the bans that were imposed during the covid period, and in international politics they are on Israel’s side. A recent opinion poll conducted by the IFOP polling center for the French Fondapol Foundation and the French branch of the American Jewish Committee confirmed that it is not the Rassemblement Nationale, but the leftist France Unconquered (La France Insoumise, LFI) party that is responsible for the “dangerously growing anti-Semitism in France.” As for the specific numbers, “92% of French Jews hold LFI responsible for the rise in anti-Semitism, not Marine Le Pen’s RN. Indeed, only 10% of French Jews blame right-wing extremists, compared to 33% of the rest of the French population. The same arguments that hold true for France or Germany also hold true for the United Kingdom, where the popularity of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party is growing rapidly.

Of course, this varies from country to country, but, by and large, about a third of the electorate in Europe “looks to the right.” Then there is another third, “looking to the left.” Finally, there is yet another third that maintains the established order, as it benefits greatly from it. In addition, there is a significant part of the population, which, as a rule, does not go to vote, but can suddenly change its decision and come to the polls, and it is not clear for whom they will give their votes. A serious social crisis exists and is gaining momentum, and it could turn into a systemic crisis if the economic downturn continues to deepen. Trump or not, continuing the war with Russia will take a huge financial and material toll. In a rather scandalous interview that one of the most senior German military commanders, Carsten Breuer, gave to the Sächsische Zeitung (Saxon Gazette – translator’s note), he talks precisely about this inevitable asymmetry: as a result of the long dispute with Russia, and now with China, there is a profound transformation of European economies that have begun to work for war. And in order to achieve this goal, one has to take into account the many casualties and the resulting consequences for the deterioration of the situation within the European states themselves.

For example, a country like Italy should all of a sudden literally double its military budget, which is currently 1.4% of GDP. But how can it do this when today in Italy there are many underfunded sectors, including important ones, such as health care, for example? How can France and Germany, which are experiencing serious financial problems that are causing domestic political opposition to grow rapidly in these countries, deal with this challenge?

In fact, if we go beyond the boundaries of official propaganda, we find ourselves in a completely different atmosphere. Not only Hungary, but also Czechia and Slovakia were included by Ukraine in the so-called “list of Putin’s allies” because of the large volumes of Russian oil and gas supplies to these countries. And these countries are not the only “traitors to the common cause” of the collective West. According to the Center for Energy and Clean Air Research and the Center for the Study of Democracy, Romania, Spain, Italy, and even the USA have purchased significant amounts of Russian fuel for about $2 billion in the first half of 2024, using the following trick: you can buy this Russian fuel if it is refined in another country, such as Turkey. Of course, this loophole can be covered by new sanctions, but then energy prices will skyrocket, and how can this be explained to consumers?

In short, the rise in popularity of the opposition does not represent a short-term phenomenon. Most likely, figuratively speaking, they are “powerfully coming to the surface through deep seismic faults in Western society.” Many pro-Western wrestlers and thinkers have been saying this for a long time. For example, Ivan Krastev and Stephen Holmes in their famous book, The Light That Failed: Why the West Is Losing the Fight for Democracy. This discussion continues today outside Europe and the United States, for example, in the works of Ivan Ilyin and Lev Gumilev. Russia is the only one of the large countries that has never been colonized. Many have tried to colonize Russia, from the Poles to the Swedes to the French to the Germans, but they have failed. Now it is being tried by NATO, a bloc that is neither the collective West nor the entire West at all, but only the most militaristic and extremist part of it. They are a minority among all residents of the so-called Big West.

The West is much more pluralistic than it is sometimes portrayed: in the West there is a Pope who fights against wars, there is a growing opposition, there are many people who are generally peaceful, but who naively believe that some limited war will bring things to order, and by doing so they may inadvertently cause the beginning of the general end.