China: Oil Imports Stop by 2045
Beijing has set itself the unprecedented goal of completely eliminating oil imports within 20 years, relying on renewable energy and “new productive forces” to do so
During the Two Sessions, the annual meetings of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and the National People’s Congress (NPC, Parliament), a disturbing proposal for oil-exporting countries was voiced. It was authored by lawmaker Liu Hanyuan, billionaire and founder of Chinese solar energy giant Tongwei Group (pictured). He said, “China’s PV industry controls more than 85 percent of the global market, and China’s production cost is the lowest in the world.”
“China is fully prepared to abandon its annual consumption of more than 500 million tons of crude oil within about two decades,” Liu Hanyuan told an audience of more than 3000 delegates at the House of People’s Congress. He estimates that “by 2045, China’s renewable energy installations and the related battery and grid infrastructure will generate an average annual investment of 10,000 to 20,000 million yuan, equivalent to 1.4 to 2.8 trillion US dollars.”
The accelerated development of modern renewable energy sources – from wind and solar farms to nuclear plants – “will not only allow China to achieve carbon neutrality five to ten years ahead of its 2060 target date,” but will also complete the transformation of the country’s economic model. This process is aimed at getting out of the deep crisis in the real estate industry and transitioning to new energy sources.
The South China Morning Post reports that Chinese President Xi Jinping (pictured) believes there is a direct correlation between “energy self-sufficiency and national security, especially in the face of growing external instability.” There is a clear hint of duties, sanctions, supply chain disruptions, and general geopolitical uncertainty in those words, largely due to the political direction of US President Donald Trump. In addition, the Chinese leadership is seeking to take all necessary measures to avoid a repeat of the severe energy crisis of the summer of 2021, when local authorities in a number of Chinese regions were forced to introduce energy rationing. This led to considerable social disruption and put severe pressure on industrial production.
The task is not easy, but it is doable. In 2024, clean energy sources, among which nuclear energy plays a leading role, accounted for 44% of China’s electricity production. This dropped coal’s share to a record low of 53%, down from 60% a year earlier. In addition to coal, oil remains another major problem. China is currently the world’s largest importer of crude oil, with the country buying 553 million tons worth $325 billion last year. Russia remains the main supplier, followed by Saudi Arabia. At the same time, China is rapidly increasing investment in renewable energy. In 2024, the country’s installed solar power capacity reached 886 gigawatts (GW), accounting for nearly half of the world’s total solar generation capacity, which is estimated at 2000 GW.
