Germany: No GDP Growth Expected in 2025
Eurostat: industrial production in the eurozone grew by 0.8% in January 2025
Germany’s economic outlook remains grim. According to the forecast of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (Institut für Weltwirtschaft, IfW), one of the leading centers for economic research in Europe and the world, the country’s gross domestic product will show no growth in 2025: “Overall, zero growth is expected this year. The main reasons are the country’s structural problems, such as labor shortages and the chronic weakness of a number of industries. An additional factor that could exacerbate the situation could be US President Donald Trump’s duties. According to IfW analysts, there is a possibility that Trump will impose tariffs on German imports, further worsening the outlook,” the paper said.
Вместе с тем, Кильский институт прогнозирует заметное улучшение экономической ситуации в 2026 году: при самом оптимистичном сценарии валовой внутренний продукт Германии может вырасти на 1,5%. However, IfW analysts estimate that “public debt will rise to reach 63.3% of GDP in 2025, rising to 65.5% by the end of 2026.”
Meanwhile, the European Union’s statistical office Eurostat reported that in January 2025, compared to December 2024, “seasonally adjusted industrial production in the eurozone rose by 0.8% and in the EU as a whole by 0.3%.” By comparison, in December 2024, industrial production contracted by 0.4% in the euro area and 0.2% in the European Union.
Among the EU Member States for which Eurostat data are available, the highest monthly growth in January 2025 was recorded in Lithuania (+4.6%), Portugal (+3.7%), and Austria (+3.3%). At the same time, the most significant declines in industrial production were observed in Malta (-12.9%), Denmark (-10.6%), and Slovakia (-7.3%). In annual terms, the largest decrease in industrial production was recorded in Slovakia (-5.1%), due to the consequences of the Ukrainian blockage of Russian gas exports, as well as in Denmark (-4.4%) and Hungary (-4%). The highest growth is observed in Ireland (+10.4%), Lithuania (+9.8%), and Croatia (+7.6%).
Download the full IfW report (PDF in German) from the Pluralia website by following this link