IMF, Global Growth Slows Down: Italy is Better than Germany and France

Global growth will slow from 3.5% in 2022 to 3% in 2023 and 2024. This has been explained by the International Monetary Fund in “Prospects for the development of the world economy” that is revising upward the growth of Italy, which will perform better than two large European countries, namely France and Germany.

Global assessments, which are moderately positive anyway, are weighed down by the rise of interest rates by central banks aimed at curbing the rising inflation, which has been a feature of the economy for several months and is affecting growth. In any case, global inflation is predicted to decline from 8.7% in 2022 to 6.8% in 2023 and to 5.2% in 2024. However, the fact remains that additional systemic shocks could lead to a further increase in the inflationary spiral: examples given in the forecast include a possible escalation of the war in Ukraine or extreme weather events. Another unknown factor is China’s recovery, which “may slow down, in part due to unresolved real estate issues, with negative cross-border effects.”

Returning to Europe, Italy grows more than the Eurozone average (projected +0.9%): the GDP forecast is raised by 0.4 points to 1.1% in 2023, and the forecast for 2024 is revised upwards by 0.1 points to +0.9%. Meanwhile, the German economy will contract in 2023 more than originally expected, while the French economy is projected to grow by 0.8%, the United Kingdom’s economy will grow by 0.4%, and the Spanish economy by as much as 2.5%. Upward forecasts for Italy and Spain are associated with excellent performance in the tourism and services sectors.