Italy: GDP in 2024 +0.6%, Inflation Below 2%

The Italian economy stagnated in the last quarter of 2023, with a GDP of +0.7%, and a similar result, according to Bank of Italy estimates, is expected in 2024. This is stated in the institution’s bulletin that was announced a few days ago by Governor Fabio Panetta.

“Our forecasts, developed as part of the Eurosystem’s coordinated action, predict GDP growth of 0.6 percent in 2024 and 1.1 percent in each of the next two years,” the report says.

The decline in inflation continues, and now it picked up and has spread to non-energy industrial goods and services. Consumer price growth in December was 0.5 percent, while estimates predict inflation will gradually decline from 1.9 percent in 2024 to 1.7 percent in 2026.

The labor market remained stable, employment continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace, while the “participation rate reached a new high since it was measured, and the unemployment rate remained stable. Nonfarm private sector wage dynamics strengthened further in the third quarter.”

As for the international context, “OECD estimates show a slowdown in global GDP this year due to the effects of restrictive monetary policy and deteriorating consumer and business confidence.” Of greatest concern is the crisis in the Middle East and the Red Sea, in terms of trade, even if these dynamics have not affected crude oil and gas prices. “Estimates forecast a moderate trend in trade of goods and services this year.”