Japan Votes for Kishida’s Successor

On Friday, September 27, 2024, Japan will elect a new leader of the Jiminto, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), and it will also decide who will be the head of the new government, given that the party has a majority in parliament (and has led the country almost continuously since 1955). There are 9 candidates in the race, although analysts say there are 3 favorites: Shinjiro Koizumi, a staunch centrist and son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi; Shigeru Ishiba, former defense minister in the Fukuda government; and nationalist Sanae Takaichi, who, if elected, would be the first female leader. If Koizumi Jr. wins, he would become the youngest prime minister in history.

Outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will leave office and has decided not to run because of consensus problems within the party following scandals involving the illegal use of funds and the subsequent dissolution of the habatsu, or powerful internal factions of the party. The latter fact makes forecasting difficult.

The party leader and therefore the next prime minister will be chosen by the so-called “grand electors,” that is, 368 parliamentarians and an equal number of grassroots members. If an absolute majority is not achieved in the first round, the two candidates with the highest number of votes will go through to a second round and will be chosen by parliamentarians and the party’s 47 local branches.

After the vote, Kishida and his ministers will resign, and parliament will appoint a new party leader as his successor. It is possible that the prime minister will then immediately call a general election.