UN: World Trade in Sharp Decline

Global trade continues to slow. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimates that “global trade is expected to decline by 5% in 2023.”

UN analysts forecast global trade to be around $30.7 trillion this year, down $1.5 trillion (-5%) from 2022 results.

In the UNCTAD Global Trade Update report, published in Geneva on December 8, experts noted “geopolitical trends, including a decrease in economic and trade interdependence between China and the USA.” Global tensions, including the conflict in the Middle East, are causing serious damage to global trade. The negative impact is increasing every month.

In particular, trade in Southeast Asia in 2023 was well below the average of recent years. Trade between countries in the Global South has also seen a noticeable decline.

“Trade growth,” the UNCTAD report notes, “remained subdued in the fourth quarter of 2023, indicating remaining problems. The outlook for 2024 is still uncertain, but overall pessimistic expectations prevail.”

Global trade in goods is expected to decline by at least $2 trillion this year, while trade in services is expected to grow by about $500 billion.