East Wind

In a rare interview, Nikolai Patrushev, former head of the FSB, a man very close to President Putin, said: “I believe that negotiations on Ukraine should take place between Russia and the USA, without the participation of other Western countries” (Komsomolskaya Pravda). He added: “The EU leadership long ago lost the right to speak on behalf of some of its members: Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, Romania, and others are determined to take a balanced stance towards Russia. We must put an end to the discrimination suffered by the Russian population in a number of territories, starting with the Baltics and Moldova.”

The fact that the Kremlin pursues exactly such goals is hardly surprising to anyone, but the fact is that attitudes towards Russia are changing in many European countries. It remains to be seen to what extent this will happen, particularly given the influence of the policies of newly elected President Trump, who has decided to work directly with Putin to end the war. One thing is certain: Europeans have already paid an economic price for the conflict in Ukraine and will pay an even greater price for the country’s recovery. This revelation is spreading in European political circles and influencing public opinion and current electoral processes.

The rise of forces opposed to further support for Kiev is evident. Another signal was the rise to power in Austria of the pro-Russian extreme right. One more came from Romania, which is in a state of utter chaos after the presidential election was canceled due to “suspicions of Russian interference.” Pro-Russian candidate Calin Georgescu, who won in the first round, has promised to stop all arms deliveries to Ukraine if he wins.

The position of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is well known, and he has taken a very ambiguous stance towards Kiev since the beginning of the conflict. For a long time, the idea was isolated in Europe, but now it is finding consensus in several countries, including Italy.

Slovakian Robert Fico, long close to Orban, has begun a dialog with President Putin and threatened to cut off “humanitarian aid” to refugees if Kiev does not resume transit of Russian gas. It should be remembered that in recent days thousands of Slovaks have taken to the streets against Fico’s pro-Russian policies. Tensions are very high. The prime minister even accused the opposition of preparing a coup, “preparing a new Maidan.”

The situation in the Czech Republic may change in the autumn parliamentary elections: polls predict a convincing victory for populist Andrej Babiš, who has promised to reduce the burden of supporting Ukraine.

Bulgaria, another EU and NATO country key to supporting Ukraine, is in the midst of a political crisis with pro-Russian forces on the rise. In December, former prime minister and leader of the conservative GERB party Boiko Borisov, though considered pro-Western, blocked a security cooperation agreement between Sofia and Kiev.

In Croatia in early January, voters gave a convincing victory (74 percent of the vote) to incumbent President Zoran Milanovic, who is considered a friend of the Russians and openly opposes armed support for Ukraine.

And, of course, everyone is waiting for the German elections, the retention of a majority committed to Kiev, which could push the EU to create a counterweight to the possible withdrawal of US troops. Here, however, billionaire Elon Musk actively intervened in the election campaign, urging Germans to vote for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, whose pro-Russian positions are well known. CDU leader and poll favorite Friedrich Merz has proposed an agreement with AfD to encourage rejection of immigrants. In practice, it’s a crack in the barrier against the far right.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron has accused Musk of supporting “a new reactionary international,” but these are principled condemnations in a political context dominated by forces on the far right and far left, both opposing the war and criticizing unconditional support for Kiev. Le Point wrote: “European leaders had hoped that Trump would continue to support them against Putin; now they see that he is not only willing to disappoint them, but intends to take advantage of their weakness while the worst-case scenario becomes possible: the collapse of NATO, a Russian victory in Ukraine, a transatlantic trade war, and conflict in Asia over Taiwan.”

The champion of European solidarity with Ukraine at the moment remains the other Donald – the Pole Tusk, current EU president. Even if he has to deal with internal opposition. Poland, according to centuries of tradition, is the country that fears the Russians the most, that feels closest to the United States, and that most strongly supports European defense policy. Moreover, it is this country that has invested the most in modernizing and strengthening its army. “If Europe wants to survive, it must arm itself,” Tusk said. It is Poland that spends 5 percent of its GDP on defense. Tusk accused Germany’s Alternative for Germany party and Poland’s Law and Justice party of supporting each other with Moscow’s help.

Even the new head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, has called for “investment” when faced with the Russian industry capable of producing “more arms and ammunition in three months than we produce in twelve.”

Since 2022, the Europeans have made tremendous progress on this issue. In reality, however, not much has really changed. The arms market remains predominantly Atlantic, and the war in Ukraine does not yet favor the application of the new doctrine.