France, Fragmented and Weakened Country

Finally, France has a government. More than two and a half months after the second round of legislative elections, which failed to produce a winner with an absolute majority in the National Assembly (an unprecedented delay in the history of the Fifth Republic), the President of the Republic asked Michel Barnier to form a government. He refused to satisfy the coalition of the New Popular Front, which has the largest group of deputies, who, after much discussion, proposed Lucie Castets, a senior civil servant in the Paris City Hall, unknown to the general public, as prime minister. He also ruled out other options, including Bernard Cazeneuve, a former Socialist prime minister whose candidacy was also torpedoed by his own former leftist friends. His choice fell on a 73-year-old politician Michel Barnier (who hates being reminded of his age) from the Republicans party, which has only 47 deputies (it lost a quarter of them in the last legislative elections) and has averaged only 5% to 6% of the vote in nearly a decade.

Barnier has some work to do. He is a local elected official with strong roots in his Savoy, has been a minister several times, a European Commissioner, and a Brexit negotiator with the British on behalf of the European Commission. This last task he accomplished by combining flexibility and firmness, which constitutes his modus operandi, implemented immediately upon his arrival at the Hôtel de Matignon, the seat of the French government. Indeed, to distinguish himself from Emmanuel Macron and the Macronists, he never stops saying that we must listen to the “people from below”, who are very often far from the voters, and practice dialogue, respect, and compromise. Words used several times in his general political speech to deputies on October 2, despite the fact that the left-wing radicals of France Unconquered continued to challenge him, protest and shout.

Michel Barnier needs to insist on his method all the more so because the policies he wants to implement face many obstacles. Indeed, the establishment of his government required lengthy consultations. It included little-known members of the Republicans (12) and the center bloc made up of different parties (27), as well as a host of others, including one leftist and two civil rights figures. So, it’s kind of a disparate coalition because it’s not the result of prior negotiations on implementing the program. This was reported by the Prime Minister, who undertook a dangerous balancing act in trying to satisfy – or rather not offend – the various components of his very weak relative majority. Indeed, at best, hoping that there will not be too many defections, he can count on only 230 deputies, with an absolute majority set at 289.

He indicated that his priorities are financial and environmental debt. The former constitutes the priority of priorities. France has significant public debt and deficits: almost 3200 billion euros and more than 110% of GDP for the former and 6.6% of GDP for the latter. To put the public finances in order, he announced drastic spending cuts and new revenues that should be exceptional. The Prime Minister has announced savings of $39 billion by 2025, although he has recognized the need to improve public services and public investment in certain sectors. He provides for substantial tax increases, especially for large companies and the wealthiest tax households. Moreover, he wants to control immigration, ensure the safety of the French, and promote their standard of living. On almost all of these issues, Michel Barnier is still uncertain and will have to make decisions, particularly during the eagerly awaited budget presentation.

Michel Barnier knows that his room for maneuver is extremely narrow. His future depends on the Rassemblement Nationale (Marine Le Pen’s party), which has agreed not to move a vote of no confidence in his government at the moment, but could do so at any time. He hopes to achieve a certain number of the provisions he is demanding, such as changing the method of voting, in this case proportional voting, which the Prime Minister has not ruled out without making a firm commitment. He will suffer from constant partisan warfare from the left, especially from France Unconquered, determined to make his life difficult by forcing communists, environmentalists, and socialists to rally around his radical opposition.

There is already dissension in his majority and in his government. Interior Minister Bruno Retalleau, a member of the Republican Party and representative of the sovereign and conservative right, multiplies very harsh statements on immigration, security, and justice, which does not please Justice Minister Didier Migaud, a former Socialist. Macronian centrists are divided between those who do not want to hear about tax increases and those who defend progressive measures in matters of public life and who are threatened, in their view, by conservative right-wing ministers in strategic positions in the government. Finally, the inhabitant of Matignon must take into account the President of the Republic, who at first glance seems to be in the background, but strives to continue his existence.

It is also one of the main lessons of the political situation that France has experienced. By dissolving the National Assembly the evening after the European elections, the president of the republic hoped for clarification. This caused confusion, as there are eleven groups in the Assembly, which was unheard of under the Fifth Republic – and its credibility eroded. The center bloc lost a third of its deputies. Many of his supporters criticize him for this decision and, knowing that his mandate is coming to an end, no longer consider themselves his vassals. In addition, Emmanuel Macron is breaking records in unpopularity. Finally, for all these reasons, he is no longer that young, innovative, influential political leader, brimming with ideas for deepening European construction. France is weakened, and just like Germany but for other reasons, this contributes to the paralysis of an otherwise very divided European Union at a time when significant problems need to be solved.

So, what could happen? It’s hard to say at this stage. The government does not have much time. It depends on what the two oppositions, the Rassemblement Nationale and the left, decide and do. However, national political life is determined by the choice of the state on the basis of universal suffrage. The two leaders want early presidential elections: Jean-Luc Mélenchon doesn’t hide it, Marine Le Pen doesn’t say it, but thinks a lot about it. They are both ready and hoping to face each other in the second round. The day these two decide it’s time for a confrontation, they will try to overthrow the government. If they achieve their goals, which requires bringing other deputies to their cause since together they do not have an absolute majority, they hope that eventually the president of the republic will surrender. Either because he will not be able to form a new government or because once the National Assembly is dissolved again, the confusion will be even greater, as the parliamentary chamber will become even more fragmented.

However, such a scenario is unlikely to materialize. Because, conversely, the other contenders for the Elysee Palace need time to prepare for this deadline. And there are a lot of them. On the right there is Laurent Wauquiez, in the center are former prime ministers, Edouard Philippe is right-wing, as is former Interior Minister Gérard Darmanin, and Gabriel Attal who is just to the left. They try to pay lip service to the government and occasionally issue warnings. On the side of the reformist left, the rivals are jostling: former President François Hollande, first secretary of the Socialist Party Olivier Faure, Bernard Cazeneuve, Raphaël Glucksmann, leader of the small Public Place party, Caroline Delga, president of the Socialist Party in the Occitanie region, or Karim Bouamrane, mayor of Saint-Ouen, a town near Paris and founder of the Humane and Strong France movement.

Hence the paradox. This competition for the Elysee Palace may allow Michel Barnier to hold on slowly, until the end of the legislature’s term, without working miracles, with a few small reforms, doing the “dirty work” of cleaning up the public accounts, which will displease most of the French. Who watch this with resignation and anger, at the risk that deep distrust of politics will only grow.