TruMusk and Power Politics

The President-elect’s press conference at Mar-a-Lago (07.01.2025), along with Elon Musk’s synergistic tweets, gave a first, rough idea of some geopolitical directions, at least for the next year. There are two observations that we will use as axioms for the sake of concision: (a) the American eagle is actually a new two-headed mutant (TruMusk), between the president and his financial partner; (b) the Cold War West was already over in 1991, but it is now clear that there are “Wests,” quadrilles of varying and opportunistic composition, largely united in a cultural koiné but fragmented in politics, society, and economics.
Let’s also liquidate easy hopes: the mingling between politics and economic power is not dependent on the mood of the two alpha males, it clear and present constant factor. The Italian Silvio Berlusconi case has already taught us that there is no such a thing as a conflict of interest, but only a synergy between the businessman and the political decision maker, driven by a resolute opportunism that ignores the pariah status of some governments.
The Global North (China, Russia, USA, etc.), despite significant differences, raises a political question: what is the relationship between political decision makers and economic oligarchs? Two countries with authoritarian tendencies chose to submit the oligarchic power to a top-down party structure or an absolute leader, often through the hidden intermediation of organised crime. The third country is currently opting for synergies where, for example, Congressional financial decisions can be changed by an actor through tweets and the electronic mobilization of constituencies without any democratic validation.
Welcome to the age of hybrid globalization, since economic globalization is now resisting the pressure of US tariffs, and political globalization has led to China and Russia declaring themselves “democracies”, whose only real evolution is to copy and spread the latest American methods on hybrid political warfare. It is not a coincidence or even a personal merit that Italy is navigating with such ease on the international scene: it is a country that has undergone a serious training through increasing levels of confusion, manipulation, authoritarianism, and the rule of unlaw; now the rest of the world has absorbed this precursory experience, often unconsciously and always spurred by the crisis of political systems de-structured by the dynamics of the “market.”
What has been wittily called Trump’s “Donroe Doctrine” for the Western Hemisphere (incorporating Canada, designating Greenland as a vital interest, regaining control of the Panama Canal, renaming the Gulf of Mexico), offers a few pointers. The first is that “America First” means prioritizing US-American issues over everything else and that this retrenching instinct tries to recreate Clinton’s NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) on tighter bonds than the economic ones. Second, Washington may risk, perhaps deliberately, to reintroduce brute force politics in the practice with capitals that are often allied ones: Moscow and Tel Aviv are very advanced on this path, Ankara recently reaffirmed its geostrategic sphere in Syria, Baku has just issued a rough warning to Armenia regarding its priorities in the Caucasus… other countries will follow suit.
Third, the European Union risks being seriously and permanently disorganized under the pressure of duties, curt demands for increased military spending and power politics. It is not the first time the EU faces unilateral duties, but today it seems to lack the necessary political unity. The estimated effect of the duties ranges from severe losses in terms of GDP to virtually negligible damages, but a transatlantic trade war would further reduce Europe’s already low growth, burdened by energy imports and ensuing costs, that would clip its wings. If we add the ongoing budget crisis in the USA and the bursting of yet another speculative bubble in the tech sector, the entire Euro-Atlantic zone is ailing, not to mention the prospect of a slower Ukrainian recovery.
Another evergreen since 2017 is the defence expenditure burden sharing between the USA and NATO’s European members. It is worth remembering that this is a controversial dispute: on the one hand, only eight countries on 32 have not reached the agreed 2% ratio of military spending to GDP (the most significant are Canada, Italy, Spain); on the other hand, from the 3,3% of US defence/GDP ratio, only a quarter, i.e. 0,82%, is allocated to the European theatre. Talking about unfair burden sharing is simply not true. European countries should instead spend better by standardizing their weapons to improve their operational capabilities.
However, the cumulative impact of the threat not to defend “delinquent” allies, the return to power politics combined with internecine hybrid political operations, leads not only to the destruction of the European architecture (based on international legality and the rejection of war as a political tool), but also to a less credible NATO Article 5, which itself is predicated on the principles of the “rules-based order”, born by the Charter of the United Nations (26.06.1945).
Three scenarios. The “French Fury, Spanish Retreat” plot assumes an initial surge by the new administration, followed by a gradual compromise with facts more hardheaded than ideologies: a trade compromise with Beijing, renewed relations with Moscow, and a postponement of sanctions on Brussels in exchange for increased military spending (including Starlink), on Ukraine as well. The “Yalta 2025” scenario, based on the balance of power, will lead to the implicit or explicit recognition of the respective spheres of influence: Moscow and Beijing will be able to project their ambitions in some expendable sectors in Eurasia and China’s seas, in exchange for giving up some overly exposed posts in Latin America, Africa and Asia, as well as shares in the New Silk Road. Finally, the “Sunset of the Wests,” where the link between the fear for lost supremacy and anger toward a rising power detonates another great war engulfing the whole Global North, followed by a stream of regional hegemony wars. Note to mariners: red storm rising.